With the next bitcoin halving expected for near the end of the first quarter of 2024, investors are employing price models to predict the movement of the coin in the time leading up to and after the halving. On December 30, 2022, the Chief Information Officer of Altana Digital Currency Fund tweeted what he considered to be the best bitcoin price prediction model.
I still believe that the #Bitcoin halving creates a 'cycle' pattern that is deteriorating with time (signal attenuation) due to smaller % reductions in inflation.
The best model I've seen for predicting the price uses an autocorrelation model from this signal.
So what's it say?
— Alistair Milne (@alistairmilne) December 30, 2022
The autocorrelation model reportedly prescribes 2023 as “a year of consolidation and reparation” and predicts that the high volatility customarily surrounding the bitcoin halving will be subdued in 2023.
Bitcoin halving is a phenomenon occurring roughly every four years where the reward for miners adding a new block to the blockchain is halved. The reward started at 50 bitcoins in 2009 and will drop from 6.25 to 3.125 bitcoins when the halving occurs in March or April 2024.
Alistair Milne, Chief Information Officer of crypto pioneer Altana Digital Currency Fund, has revealed his predictions for bitcoin for the next two to three years, based on an autocorrelation model attenuated by bitcoin’s deteriorating halving cycle. According to Milne, bitcoin’s unpredictability and seeming detachment from most models in 2022 were due to a mix of “macro influence and full-retard actions.” Although Milne’s preferred model’s 2022 floor price of $25k has already bottomed, he believes that bitcoin will follow the model for 2023 and reach a value of no less than $45k at the end of 2023, and $150-300k post-halving at the end of 2024.
Milne predicts that bitcoin’s price will escalate when it breaks the current all-time high (ATH) of $68,789.63 which was reached in November 2021, probably sometime in 2024. He also expects the bearish market to end soon and for 2023 to see a steady increase as bitcoin HODL’ing continues to rise.
Apart from price, Milne also predicts that MtGox, the infamous exchange that at one point controlled over 70% of bitcoin transactions, will release bitcoin to creditors in 2023, leading to FUD. The exchange has been in the process of being liquidated; the trustee confirmed back in March 2018 that enough BTC had been sold to cover creditors’ claims, and the creditors reached an agreement for compensation in November 2021, so a release is imminent.
Milne also makes other predictions regarding issues such as former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried’s trial, a Litecoin halving rally, Twitter and Facebook integrating crypto wallets, and Elon Musk’s SpaceX floating after revealing their BTC holdings.
