On the 2nd of January 2023, Pierre Rochard went on Twitter to share his thoughts that Bitcoin is in the trough of disillusionment, and is at a critical tipping point in crypto history.
— Pierre Rochard (@BitcoinPierre) January 2, 2023
Pierre believes that bitcoin would either enter the slope of enlightenment this year or the cyclic patterns it has been exhibiting since inception would be broken. Unfortunately, we are in the trough of disillusionment.
He was referencing the Gartner Hype Cycle. It was a fun yet ironic way of talking about the progressive movement of technology and was prevalent in the 90s. The idea behind the Gartner Hype Cycle is the different stages that such technologies as crypto and Bitcoin go through. How they are perceived by society and the level of access to their features and daily application.
When Bitcoin was introduced, it went through an initial Trigger phase which lead to an “Inflated period of expectation” and possible fantasy. After a period of limitation and issues stemming from situations like the FTX crash, consistent scams and hacks, limitations to real-world application, and the wearing off of the novelty of the new tech, the curve falls into a “Trough of disillusionment”.
Afterward, by resilience and overcoming such limitations, the curve climbs once again up the “Slope of enlightenment”. Consistent adoptions then lead to the final stage referred to as the ‘Plateau of productivity’.
The Gartner Hype Cycle is a simple prediction model that is usually not backed by scientific studies or academic data. But Bitcoin’s cyclical pattern is a feature of the crypto space which on numerous occasions has been backed by graphical data.
Unfortunately, the expected low coincides with multiple actions of bad actors, and the whole industry is in an ethical, conceptual, intellectual, and technical slump. If the model is to be followed, as inaccurate as it is, there is a possibility that consistent negative progression would lead to a sudden disappearance of most crypto projects and utilities.
While the Gartner Hype Cycle is not a scientifically reliable and trustworthy model for the advancement of blockchain technology, it offers an interesting way to talk about the overall crypto industry. Instead of focusing on a specific crypto project or category like Bitcoin, we can ask where blockchain technology in its entirety is located on the curve. And it does not look good.
According to Pierre Rochard, the plan has not changed. The focus is still to bullishly accumulate BTC for the long-term advantages of the protocol’s fundamentals.