Bitcoin Lags Behind Stocks and Bonds in Q2 2024
According to Bloomberg, Bitcoin has underperformed compared to global equities, fixed income, and commodities this quarter. The flagship cryptocurrency has lost approximately 5% since the start of April through mid-June.
After hitting a high of $73,798 in March, attempts to rally back to the position have failed to materialize.
A Disappointing Quarter
In the previous quarter, Bitcoin had soared 67% in the three months through March, massively surpassing indexes of traditional assets. One of the key reasons fueling the move was the hype around the approval of US Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). However, that enthusiasm seems to be fading, according to Noelle Acheson, author of the Crypto Is Macro Now newsletter.
Acheson believes the inflow of fresh funds into Bitcoin ETFs has slowed down. She attributed most of the recent inflows to existing Bitcoin holders, adding that “only new money will move the price.”
ETF Enthusiasm Wanes
Drawing in over $15 billion to date, Bitcoin ETFs were one of the most coveted investment vehicles on Wall Street. Strategists at JPMorgan Chase observed that there has been a rotation of funds from digital wallets on exchanges to the new ETF products. Keeping that in mind, they estimated this year’s net flow to crypto, including ETFs and other sources, at $12 billion.
The estimation is a lot lower compared to the $45 billion recorded in 2021 and $40 billion in 2022. With this, the strategists concluded that they remain “skeptical” about the pace of inflows continuing through the remainder of 2024.
Miners’ Struggles Impact Performance
Acheson further estimates that Bitcoin miners may have contributed to the cryptocurrency’s lackluster performance. Miners have been selling off their cryptocurrency holdings to stay afloat. With the April halving, there has been a considerable drop in profitability. The current halving slashed the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.
In May, crypto mining analytics firm Hashrate Index revealed that miners would face a “hefty upward difficulty adjustment” in the coming months. Prior to that, research firm Kaiko had warned of impending selling pressure from miners.
“If miners were forced to sell even a fraction of their holdings over the coming months, this would have a negative impact on markets,” the firm wrote back then.
Bullish Sentiment Amidst the Slump
Despite the slump in performance, some analysts remain bullish on Bitcoin. CryptoCon has predicted a year-end price target of $91,539 for the premiere crypto. Galaxy Digital’s Michael Novogratz speculates a similar range at $100,000.
Meanwhile, Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood has the most optimistic outlook, having pushed her long-term price target for Bitcoin higher to a whopping $3.8 million.
While the recent performance of Bitcoin may be disappointing, the long-term projections and continued interest in the cryptocurrency suggest that it still holds significant potential for future gains.
