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Ethereum co-founder Modestly Tears Down the Stock-to-Flow Model

by Dalmas Ngetich
Jun 22, 2022 - 12:00 am
in Blockchain
Ethereum co-founder Modestly Tears Down the Stock-to-Flow Model

On Tuesday, Vitalik Buterin, the co-founder of Ethereum made his stance known about the stock-to-flow model. Vitalik amplified the flaws of the model, further condemning the price predictions of Plan B.

Stock-to-flow is really not looking good now.

I know it's impolite to gloat and all that, but I think financial models that give people a false sense of certainty and predestination that number-will-go-up are harmful and deserve all the mockery they get. https://t.co/hOzHjVb1oq pic.twitter.com/glMKQDfSbU

— vitalik.eth (@VitalikButerin) June 21, 2022

Commenting on the model, Vitalik Buterin said:

“I know it’s impolite to gloat and all that, but I think financial models that give people a false sense of certainty and predestination that number-will-go-up are harmful and deserve all the mockery they get.”

Another Tweeter user bashed the model, as well as the founder of the model, urging Plan B to delete his social media account and abandon price prediction.

The Stock to Flow Model

The stock-to-flow model of price prediction was deduced by a crypto maximalist known as Plan B. The model became famous in 2019 and played out quite well for some time.

According to the S2F model, Bitcoin was destined to soar above the $10,000 mark in 2020 and be valued above $50K per BTC in 2021. Interestingly, the year 2020 started on a bad note for crypto traders and Bitcoin even fell below $4000 in March, following the economic meltdown caused by COVID-19. However, the narrative changed during the latter part of the year. 

In October, Bitcoin started its boom, breaking previous highs. The momentum continued into 2021 and Bitcoin crossed the $50K mark. Plan B’s price prediction for the flagship asset went according to plan in 2020 and 2021.

The next milestone was the $100k mark which was meant to play out by the end of 2021. In November 2021, BTC broke its previous high again and even crossed $68,000. At that point, Bitcoin maximalists were certain that the $100K goal was inevitable. Sadly, Bitcoin tumbled, crushing the hearts of investors and maximalists in December 2020.

Since December last year, things have gone from bad to worse for the Bitcoin bulls. Every month has been accompanied by new recent lows and the fear and uncertainty in the minds of investors have peaked.

Bitcoin is currently valued at $20K, miles away from the $100K per BTC stock-to-flow prediction for the year. Although Bitcoiners still believe in the $100,000 goal, that milestone may not be reached any time soon.

Tags: BTC
Dalmas Ngetich

Dalmas Ngetich

His primary focus is on technical analysis (crypto is, obviously, *not* crypto without the twirls of price action), the magic of DeFi, and NFTs. He is specifically training his eyes and effort on DeFi—and how the tech is changing investment, opening up opportunities for everyone—and the possibilities of NFTs.

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