In the months preceding its halving in August 2023, Litecoin deviated from the downward trend experienced by the larger cryptocurrency market. The availability of Litecoin’s mega whale addresses is at its most incredible level since June 2017, according to data from market intelligence company Santiment. 2.95M $LTC, worth $219.6M, were amassed by addresses with 1M or more coins over the previous five weeks.
⚡️🐳 #Litecoin's mega #whale addresses are holding their highest level of available supply since June, 2017, according to @santimentfeed data. In the past 5 weeks, 2.95M $LTC were accumulated by addresses with 1M or more coins held, valued at $219.6M. https://t.co/rPH0qqqs6p pic.twitter.com/ZbIv0hECpc
— Santiment (@santimentfeed) December 12, 2022
Additionally, the LTC/BTC price rose to new highs, rising almost 50% in November to hit a new record of 0.003970 BTC on November 22. With its halving scheduled for August 2023, as earlier reported, Litecoin broke apart from the downward trend experienced by the whole cryptocurrency market. Michael Saylor also endorsed LTC as a “digital commodity” similar to Bitcoin.
Despite this new milestone, there are growing indications of bullish weariness. The price fractal for Litecoin suggests a 50% correction. The weekly relative strength index (RSI) reading of the LTC/BTC pair indicates that Litecoin’s surge against Bitcoin has overvalued the pair.
Notably, on November 22, the weekly RSI for LTC/BTC, which gauges the pace and change of price moves for the pair, rose beyond 70. Many conventional analysts see an RSI value above 70, regarded as overbought, as a signal of an oncoming negative reversal.
Major price corrections typically occur after Litecoin’s RSI readings vs. Bitcoin crosses to the overbought region. For instance, the LTC/BTC RSI’s rise over 70 in April 2021 was followed by a significant sell-off response, which ultimately caused the pair to decline by 75% to 0.001716 BTC by June 2022. Similarly, an overbought RSI in April 2019 caused a 70% decline in the LTC/BTC price by December 2019.
The same RSI fractal now suggests that Litecoin might lose 50% of its value about Bitcoin if combined with the multi-year falling channel pattern for LTC/BTC, as illustrated below. After touching the top trendline, LTC/BTC often overbought, followed by a pullback lower.
The pair thus runs the danger of falling below 0.001797 BTC by December 2022, down more than 50% from the present price levels, assuming the fractal repeats. Litecoin, trading at $74.6,8 at the time of writing, is down by 2.39%, but investors seemed to prefer keeping the coin over the other.
Every time a block is created, miners get a fixed number of LTC as part of the coin issuance (roughly every 2.5 minutes).
Fifty LTC were awarded to miners for each block when Litecoin initially began. The block reward will reduce once every 840,000 blocks are mined (about every four years) and will continue until it reaches zero (approximately by the year 2142).
The block reward now stands at 12.5 coins for each block; after the half, it will drop to 6.25 coins per block.
