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Crypto Betting Gears Up as Canadians Head to the Polls
As Canadians go to the polls in a surprise election, crypto users are wagering thick and fast that the Liberal Party will win. One of the largest crypto-prediction sites, Polymarket, currently offers a 79% chance of Liberal hopeful Mark Carney becoming Canada’s next Prime Minister. More than $75 million has been wagered, a measure of the huge level of public interest in the election.
This political betting boom underscores the increasing prominence of decentralized prediction markets in monitoring election sentiment. Crypto traders, attracted by the prospect of making money from actual events, are increasingly using platforms such as Polymarket to place their political bets.
Reversal of Fortunes After Trudeau’s Exit
The upbeat odds for Carney represent a significant turnabout for the Liberal Party following January’s resignation of former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Trudeau was under increasing criticism of the government’s response to Canada’s housing affordability crisis, inflation concerns, and tensions with the United States, reducing public support sharply.
When U.S. President Donald Trump escalated the trade tensions with a 25% tariff imposed on Canadian imports in March, Canadian national sentiment shifted. Trump’s repeated jabs, his reference to Canada as the “51st state” of the United States, and his derisive tagging of Trudeau as a “governor” all helped fuel a surge of nationalist sentiments that appear to have paid off for the Liberals.
Carney, a former Bank of Canada governor and Bank of England governor, set himself up as a steady, middle-ground figure with the skill to guide Canada through periods of economic doubt. His technocratic persona is diametrically opposed to Conservative rival Pierre Poilievre’s brand of populism.
Trump’s Influence and Growing Anti-Poilievre Sentiment
Public reaction to American belligerence was quick. At NHL games and other high-profile sporting events, boos rang out during performances of the U.S. national anthem, a phenomenon of increasing irritation. Voters began associating Poilievre with Trump-style politics, something that has been damaging in a country where Trump remains highly unpopular.
Surveys combined with Polymarket’s betting data show that a large number of undecided voters supported Carney in the last few days leading up to the election. Analysts believe Trump’s interference actually served the Liberal Party’s interests inadvertently, firming up its voter base.
As votes continue to trickle in, everyone holds their breath in anticipation of whether crypto markets’ predictions will converge with the actual count, rendering Mark Carney’s rise to Canada’s highest political office a virtual certainty.
