For the first time in the current market cycle, more bitcoin is held at a loss than at a profit. On-chain data from Glassnode shows roughly 10.83 million BTC are currently underwater, compared to 9.22 million in profit. This milestone underscores the severity of the correction from bitcoin’s January 2025 peak above $109,000 and its all-time high of $126,080 in October 2025.
Loss-Making Supply Overtakes Profit
The crossover is a rare event. According to Glassnode, this is the first time since the current cycle began that loss-making supply has exceeded profitable supply. Historically, such readings have appeared near periods of peak financial stress and capitation among newer buyers. They have also marked the point where coins migrate from weak hands to strong hands, as only holders with high conviction tend to sit on losses rather than sell.
Bitcoin traded at $61,361 on Thursday, up 0.7% on the day and 2.5% on the week. Ether added 4.2% to $1,702, while Solana led majors with an 18.6% weekly gain to $80.44. Bitcoin remains roughly 51% below its October 2025 all-time high.
Technical Levels: 200-Week SMA Still Key
Bitcoin has bounced from 21-month lows under $58,000 but remains below the pivotal 200-week simple moving average (SMA), currently at $62,660. This level has served as major support since February and historically marked accumulation zones where bear markets bottomed. A decisive breakout above it would confirm a bullish narrative and could attract more buyers.
Renewed demand for spot ETFs accompanied the recovery, suggesting potential continuation to the upside. However, the 200-week SMA still acts as resistance.
BTC-Pulse Take
The supply crossover does not guarantee a bottom. In 2018–19 and 2022, similar readings preceded months of basing before a sustained recovery. What matters next is whether ETF inflows continue and macro pressures ease. Long-term holder accumulation, as noted in our previous coverage, has already picked up. The chart alone does not resolve—follow-through from price and volume is needed to turn the accumulation signal into a bullish catalyst. Long-term holder accumulation has already picked up, but the chart alone does not resolve—follow-through from price and volume is needed.
Those following Bitcoin trends may also want to read UniCredit Offers Bitcoin Exposure to Italian Elites via BlackRock’s IBIT and AgriFORCE Powers 120 Bitcoin Mining Rigs With Stranded Natural Gas in Alberta for further context.
