Last updated: October 19, 2026.
Short answer: Bitcoin rose after every one of its four halvings, but each cycle gained less. From halving day to the cycle peak, the price grew 94x after 2012, 29.9x after 2016, 7.9x after 2020 and 1.9x after 2024. Each peak came 371 to 546 days after the halving. The three finished cycles then fell 77% to 85%; the 2024 cycle is down 53% so far. Spot Bitcoin ETFs didn’t pile in around the 2024 halving: April 2024 was their first month of net outflows.
Key takeaways
- Smaller gains each time. If you had put $1,000 into bitcoin on halving day, you’d have had about $94,000 at the 2013 peak, but only about $1,920 at the 2025 peak (daily closes).
- The peak came 12 to 18 months after the halving. The 2024 cycle followed the pattern so far: the record close of $124,720.09 came on October 6, 2025, 534 days after the halving, and no close has topped it through October 16, 2026.
- Every peak was followed by a deep fall. The three finished cycles fell 76.7% (2021 to 2022) to 84.5% (2013 to 2015). The 2024 cycle has fallen 53.1% so far.
- The 2024 cycle broke one pattern. Its lowest close after the peak, $58,523.93 on June 30, 2026, is below the halving-day price of $64,968.87. In earlier cycles, the low after the peak stayed well above the halving price.
- The supply cut is now small next to ETF flows. The 2024 halving cut new supply by 450 BTC a day, about $29.2 million at the halving price. On October 14, 2026 alone, spot Bitcoin ETFs had net outflows of $261.4 million.
Bitcoin halving history: all four cycles
| 2012 | 2016 | 2020 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Halving date (UTC) | November 28, 2012 | July 9, 2016 | May 11, 2020 | April 20, 2024 |
| Block | 210,000 | 420,000 | 630,000 | 840,000 |
| Reward per block | 50 → 25 BTC | 25 → 12.5 BTC | 12.5 → 6.25 BTC | 6.25 → 3.125 BTC |
| Price on halving day | ≈ $12.25 (November 27, 2012) | $657.61 | $8,572.40 | $64,968.87 |
| One year later | $1,031.95 | $2,508.99 | $56,753.19 | $85,177.34 |
| Cycle peak (close) | $1,151.17 | $19,650.01 | $67,554.84 | $124,720.09 (highest so far) |
| Peak date | December 4, 2013 | December 16, 2017 | November 8, 2021 | October 6, 2025 |
| Days from halving to peak | 371 | 525 | 546 | 534 |
| Halving to peak | 94.0x | 29.9x | 7.9x | 1.9x |
| Low after peak (close) | $178.10 | $3,183.00 | $15,760.14 | $58,523.93 (so far) |
| Low date | January 14, 2015 | December 15, 2018 | November 21, 2022 | June 30, 2026 |
| Fall from peak | −84.5% | −83.8% | −76.7% | −53.1% |
Data as of October 16, 2026. Block dates: mempool.space. Prices are daily closes: Coinbase for 2016 to 2026, CoinMarketCap for 2013 to 2015. The 2012 halving price is the November 27, 2012 price reported by Bitbo; no major exchange with a public daily history covers that day. Multiples and percentages are our calculations.
What is a bitcoin halving?
A halving is the moment the bitcoin reward for mining a new block is cut in half. It happens every 210,000 blocks, which takes about four years at the network’s target of one block every 10 minutes. The rule is written into Bitcoin’s code, so the date isn’t set by anyone; it falls on whichever day block 210,000, 420,000 and so on is mined.
Each halving cuts the number of new coins entering the market. After the April 20, 2024 halving, miners create 3.125 BTC per block, or about 450 BTC a day (144 blocks a day). About 20.1 million of the 21 million bitcoin that will ever exist have already been mined, according to the block height on mempool.space on October 17, 2026.
For the mechanics of the next one, block rewards and mining economics, see our guide to the 2028 bitcoin halving.
What happened to the price after each halving?
The price rose after every halving, but the rise took more than a year to peak. Here’s each cycle in short.
2012: from about $12 to $1,151. One year after the first halving, bitcoin traded at $1,031.95. It peaked at a $1,151.17 close on December 4, 2013, then fell 84.5% to $178.10 on January 14, 2015.
2016: from $658 to $19,650. Bitcoin was at $2,508.99 a year later. The peak came on December 16, 2017, 525 days after the halving. About a year after that, on December 15, 2018, it closed at $3,183.00, down 83.8%.
2020: from $8,572 to $67,555. The 2020 halving came two months after the March 2020 crash. A year later bitcoin was at $56,753.19, and it peaked on November 8, 2021. It then fell 76.7% to $15,760.14 on November 21, 2022.
2024: from $64,969 to $124,720. This was the first halving with US spot Bitcoin ETFs trading. Bitcoin was at $85,177.34 a year later, 31% higher. It peaked on October 6, 2025, at a $124,720.09 close (the intraday high that day was $126,296 on Coinbase). By June 30, 2026, it had fallen to $58,523.93.
Why each cycle gained less
The cut matters less every time, because the market around it keeps growing. In 2012, the halving removed 3,600 new bitcoin a day from the market. That was worth about $44,000 a day at the halving price. In 2024, it removed 450 bitcoin a day, worth about $29.2 million.
| Halving | New BTC cut per day | Value of the cut per day (at halving price) |
|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 3,600 | ≈ $44,100 |
| 2016 | 1,800 | $1.18 million |
| 2020 | 900 | $7.72 million |
| 2024 | 450 | $29.24 million |
Our calculation: 144 blocks a day × the reward removed per block × the halving-day price in the first table.
$29 million a day sounds like a lot, but it’s small next to today’s flows. Spot Bitcoin ETFs move hundreds of millions of dollars on a single day: on October 14, 2026, they had net outflows of $261.4 million, about seven days of the new supply at the October 16, 2026 price. Our October 2026 ETF flows report has the daily data.
Four cycles are a small sample. The pattern of a peak 12 to 18 months after the halving held four times. That doesn’t prove the halving caused it. Interest rates, new buyers and products like ETFs also moved the price in each cycle.
What did spot Bitcoin ETFs do around the 2024 halving?
ETFs bought before the halving, sold right after it, then bought heavily a few weeks later. These are the daily totals for all US spot Bitcoin ETFs from Farside Investors.
| Period | Trading days | Net flows |
|---|---|---|
| April 1 to April 19, 2024 (before the halving) | 15 | +$196.1 million |
| April 22 to May 2, 2024 (first two weeks after) | 9 | −$1,139.3 million |
| May 3 to May 31, 2024 | 20 | +$2,671.0 million |
| April 2024, full month | 22 | −$345.1 million |
| May 2024, full month | 22 | +$2,072.9 million |
Data: Farside Investors, daily net flows for all US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Totals: our calculation.
April 2024 was the first month with net outflows since the funds launched on January 11, 2024. The worst day was May 1, 2024, when $563.7 million left the funds. BlackRock’s IBIT reported $0 in flows on April 24, 2024, ending a run of 71 trading days with inflows.
Today, ETFs hold far more bitcoin than the 2024 cycle has created. Since the 2024 halving, miners have created about 411,700 BTC (131,747 blocks × 3.125 BTC, through October 17, 2026). The 12 US spot Bitcoin ETFs held 1,283,482 BTC on October 15, 2026, according to Bitbo, about three times that amount. See the fund-by-fund numbers in our spot Bitcoin ETF tracker.
Where the 2024 cycle stands now
909 days after the 2024 halving, bitcoin is 25% above its halving price, the smallest gain at this point of any cycle. Bitcoin closed at $81,500.04 on October 16, 2026, according to Coinbase. That’s 34.7% below the October 6, 2025 peak.
| Cycle | Date 909 days after the halving | Price that day | Change from halving day |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | May 26, 2015 | $237.12 | +1,836% |
| 2016 | January 4, 2019 | $3,820.82 | +481% |
| 2020 | November 6, 2022 | $20,909.17 | +144% |
| 2024 | October 16, 2026 | $81,500.04 | +25% |
Daily closes: CoinMarketCap (2015), Coinbase (2019 to 2026). Change: our calculation.
In earlier cycles, day 909 came near the bottom of the bear market. In this cycle, the low so far was a $58,523.93 close on June 30, 2026, and the intraday low was $57,717.55 on July 1, 2026 (Coinbase). Nobody can confirm a bottom until much later. To see where the price stands against common indicators today, read Is now a good time to buy bitcoin? 5 indicators to check.
When is the next bitcoin halving?
The next halving happens at block 1,050,000, most likely in April 2028. The reward will drop from 3.125 to 1.5625 BTC per block, and new supply from about 450 to about 225 BTC a day.
On October 17, 2026, the chain was at block 971,747, so 78,253 blocks remained. At exactly 10 minutes per block, that’s about 543 days, or around April 12, 2028. Blocks often come a little faster or slower than 10 minutes, so the date can move by days or weeks. CoinWarz estimated April 14, 2028, as cited in our 2028 halving guide.
What this means for you
- Don’t count on the old multiples. The rise from halving day to peak fell from 94x to 29.9x to 7.9x to 1.9x. On $10,000, that’s the difference between about $940,000 and about $19,200 at the peak.
- Plan for deep falls. The three finished cycles gave back 77% to 85% from their peaks, and the 2024 cycle is down 53% so far. A plan that only works if bitcoin keeps rising won’t survive a cycle like these.
- Watch ETF flows as closely as the halving date. On May 1, 2024, $563.7 million left spot ETFs in one day. That’s about 19 days of the supply the 2024 halving removed, at the halving price.
Key numbers to remember
- 4: halvings so far (2012, 2016, 2020, 2024).
- 371 to 546 days: time from halving to cycle peak.
- 94x, 29.9x, 7.9x, 1.9x: halving-to-peak gains, in order.
- 450 BTC a day: new supply since April 20, 2024.
- April 2028: the likely date of the next halving, at block 1,050,000.
FAQ
What happens to bitcoin’s price after a halving? In all four cycles, the price was higher a year later and peaked 371 to 546 days after the halving. The three finished cycles then fell 77% to 85%, and the 2024 cycle is down 53% so far. The gains have shrunk every cycle, from 94x after 2012 to 1.9x after 2024.
When was the last bitcoin halving? On April 20, 2024, at 00:09 UTC, with block 840,000. The reward fell from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC per block.
How many bitcoin halvings have there been? Four: November 28, 2012, July 9, 2016, May 11, 2020 and April 20, 2024.
How many halvings are left? 29. Bitcoin’s code halves the reward 33 times in total, and the 33rd halving, at block 6,930,000 around the year 2140, takes it to zero. After that, miners earn only transaction fees.
Did Bitcoin ETFs buy around the 2024 halving? Not right away. US spot Bitcoin ETFs had net outflows of $345.1 million in April 2024, their first negative month, and $1.14 billion left in the first nine trading days after the halving. Inflows returned in May 2024, with $2.07 billion for the month.
When is the next bitcoin halving? Most likely in April 2028, when block 1,050,000 is mined. At 10 minutes per block, the estimate on October 17, 2026 was around April 12, 2028.
Is the four-year cycle over? Nobody can say yet. The 2024 cycle peaked on the usual schedule, 534 days after the halving, but it gained far less, and it’s the first cycle whose low after the peak fell below its halving price. Four cycles are too few to prove a rule either way.
Sources
- mempool.space (halving blocks 210,000, 420,000, 630,000 and 840,000; current block height)
- Coinbase Exchange: BTC-USD daily candles (API endpoint; daily closes, 2016 to 2026)
- CoinMarketCap: Bitcoin historical data (daily closes, 2013 to 2015)
- Bitbo: 2012 halving (2012 price)
- Farside Investors: Bitcoin ETF flow, all data (daily ETF flows, April and May 2024)
- CoinDesk: BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF snaps 71-day inflow streak (April 25, 2024)
- Bitbo: US Bitcoin ETF holdings (snapshot of October 15, 2026: 12 spot funds; BITA, BlackRock’s covered-call income fund, excluded)
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
