Last updated: October 28, 2026. Prices as of the October 27, 2026 close. The Fed announces its decision at 2:00 p.m. ET (18:00 UTC) today; we will update this article after the decision and the press conference.
Short answer: The Federal Reserve is expected to hold its benchmark rate at 3.75% to 4.00% today, October 28, 2026. Prediction markets put the chance of a hold at about 96% on the evening of October 27. The bigger question for bitcoin is December: traders price about a 75% chance of another hike on December 9, 2026. Bitcoin closed at $80,800 on October 27, up 6.1% since the Fed’s last hike on September 16, 2026.
Key takeaways
- Expected today: no change. 94 of 100 economists in a Reuters poll expect a hold, Newsquawk reported.
- Why the Fed is leaning toward higher rates: consumer prices rose 3.7% in the year to September 2026, pushed up by energy prices after renewed US-Iran fighting.
- What markets will watch: whether Chair Kevin Warsh keeps a December hike on the table, and whether three officials vote for a hike today, as they did in July.
- Bitcoin has no fixed Fed pattern this year: in the week after each of the six 2026 decisions, it rose three times and fell three times.
What the Fed is expected to do today
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed’s rate-setting committee, ends its two-day meeting today. The statement comes out at 2:00 p.m. ET, and Chair Kevin Warsh holds a press conference afterward.
| Measure | Value | Date |
|---|---|---|
| Fed funds target range | 3.75% to 4.00% | since September 16, 2026 |
| Chance of a hold today (Kalshi and Polymarket) | about 96% | October 27, 2026, 8:13 p.m. ET |
| Chance of a hike on December 9, 2026 | about 75% | October 27, 2026, 8:13 p.m. ET |
| Economists expecting a hold today | 94 of 100 | Reuters poll |
| Bitcoin close | $80,799.51 | October 27, 2026 |
Chances are prediction-market prices, which show what traders expect, not what will happen.
A hold would be the sixth in seven meetings this year. The Fed kept rates at 3.50% to 3.75% at its first five 2026 meetings, then raised them by a quarter point on September 16, 2026, its first hike since 2023. That vote was 12–0. At the meeting before, on July 29, 2026, three officials (Beth Hammack of Cleveland, Neel Kashkari of Minneapolis and Lorie Logan of Dallas) had already voted for a hike.
Why rates are going up, not down
Inflation is moving the wrong way, mostly because of energy.
| Inflation measure | Latest reading | Month |
|---|---|---|
| Consumer prices (CPI), all items | 3.7% a year | September 2026 |
| CPI excluding food and energy | 2.6% a year | September 2026 |
| Energy prices in the CPI | +20.4% a year | September 2026 |
| PCE prices (the Fed’s preferred measure), all items | 3.4% a year | August 2026 |
| Core PCE | 3.0% a year | August 2026 |
The Fed targets 2% inflation. In September, gasoline prices alone rose 9.1% in a month, according to the Labor Department data summarized by First Trust. When the Fed hiked in September, Warsh said inflation was “too high and has been for too long,” the Associated Press reported.
The job market is cooling at the same time. The US added just 29,000 jobs in September 2026, below the 90,000 expected, and unemployment rose to 4.2%. That’s why most forecasters expect a pause today rather than back-to-back hikes. We covered the CPI report in September CPI hits 3.7%: what it means for bitcoin.
What this means for you: higher rates make cash and Treasury bills pay more, which competes with assets like bitcoin that pay no interest. That’s why a hawkish Fed, one that signals more hikes, is usually seen as a headwind for crypto prices.
Three ways today could go for bitcoin
| Outcome | How likely, per markets | What it could mean for bitcoin |
|---|---|---|
| Hold, December hike stays likely | the base case | Mostly priced in. The press conference matters more than the decision |
| Hold, Warsh pushes back on a December hike | less likely | Could help bitcoin, since traders would price lower rates |
| Surprise hike to 4.00% to 4.25% | about 4% | Likely a short sell-off across risk assets |
These are scenarios, not forecasts. Markets often move most during the press conference, which starts 30 minutes after the statement.
Watch for:
- The vote count. Rabobank expects Hammack, Kashkari and Logan to vote for a hike again, Newsquawk reported. More dissents would make a December hike look more certain.
- The words “further increases.” Any change in the statement’s wording about future moves will be read as a signal for December.
- The midterms. Today’s meeting comes a week before the November 3, 2026 midterm elections.
How bitcoin has reacted to Fed decisions in 2026
| Fed decision | What the Fed did | Bitcoin, week after |
|---|---|---|
| January 28, 2026 | Hold | −18.1% |
| March 18, 2026 | Hold | −3.6% |
| April 29, 2026 | Hold | +6.7% |
| June 17, 2026 | Hold | −7.1% |
| July 29, 2026 | Hold, three votes for a hike | +1.2% |
| September 16, 2026 | Hike to 3.75% to 4.00% | +11.6% |
Coinbase BTC-USD daily closes (UTC), from the day before each decision to seven days after the decision.
The pattern is that there isn’t one. Bitcoin’s biggest weekly gain came after the September hike, the move that was supposed to hurt it. Markets had expected that hike: the Fed had signaled one back in June. The biggest drop came after the January hold, when the Fed changed nothing.
Spot bitcoin ETFs tell a similar story. After the September hike, daily ETF flows turned positive for nine trading days, as our October 2026 ETF flows page shows. In October, through October 23, 2026, the funds have had net outflows of $313.5 million, according to Farside Investors data.
What this means for you: if you hold bitcoin for years, one Fed meeting matters little. If you trade around the decision, expect the biggest swings in the hour after 2:00 p.m. ET, and remember that prediction-market odds can flip within minutes of the press conference.
For where analysts see bitcoin by the end of the year, see our bitcoin price prediction for 2026.
What’s next after today
- December 8–9, 2026: the last Fed meeting of the year, with new rate projections from officials. In September, 16 of 18 officials projected at least one more hike in 2026.
- November 3, 2026: US midterm elections.
- Weekly ETF flows: we update the spot bitcoin ETF tracker every Friday.
FAQ
What time is the Fed decision today? The Fed releases its statement at 2:00 p.m. ET (18:00 UTC) on October 28, 2026. Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference starts at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Will the Fed raise rates today? Probably not. On the evening of October 27, 2026, prediction markets priced about a 96% chance of a hold at 3.75% to 4.00%, and 94 of 100 economists in a Reuters poll expected no change.
What is the current Fed interest rate? The federal funds target range is 3.75% to 4.00%. The Fed set it on September 16, 2026, when it raised rates by a quarter point.
How does the Fed rate affect bitcoin? Higher rates make interest-paying assets like Treasury bills more attractive and tend to weigh on assets that pay no interest, including bitcoin. In practice, prices often move on what the Fed signals for future meetings rather than on the decision itself.
When is the next Fed meeting after October 2026? December 8–9, 2026. Prediction markets priced about a 75% chance of a hike at that meeting as of October 27, 2026.
Sources
- Federal Reserve: FOMC meeting calendar
- Federal Reserve: FOMC minutes, September 15–16, 2026
- Associated Press via OPB: Fed hikes key rate for first time in 3 years (September 16, 2026)
- WUSF (NPR): Fed holds rates steady and hints at a hike later this year (June 17, 2026)
- Central Banking: Fed holds rates with three members dissenting (July 29, 2026)
- Newsquawk: Fed rate decision preview
- DeFi Rate: Fed decision odds snapshot (October 27, 2026)
- First Trust: CPI rose 0.6% in September (October 14, 2026)
- Trading Economics: August 2026 PCE (September 30, 2026)
- Farside Investors: Bitcoin ETF flow
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
